澳門酒店業最優供給總量研究 -單週期最優存貨水平模型的應用

 

摘要:
針對需求量有不正確性的存貨管理,2001年安德生提出了單週期最優存貨水平模型。本文運用言一模型,利用澳門酒店業1991-2005年經營資料,借助SPSS統計分析軟件,對澳門酒店業2005-2008年的客房最優供給量進行了分析與預測。研究結果表明,以現有9300間可供出租客房量為基數,在不新增客房條件下,2006-2009年澳門酒店業,分別累計需要新增745間、1953間、3416間、5126間客房才能保持最優供需狀態。根據目前已經掌握的酒店投資計劃,如果不採取推遲投資措施,未來幾年澳門業可能會供過於求。

 

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